When researchers found fire salamanders (Salamandra salamandra) in the Netherlands dying at a rapid rate from a skin fungus, they thought the infection looked familiar.

Globally, amphibian numbers are declining in large part due to a chytrid fungus known as Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis or Bd. Bd attacks the skin of its host causing “the outer layers of the epidermis to thicken,” says the Academy’s amphibian expert, Dave Blackburn. “Bd disrupts the function of amphibian’s skin by interfering with electrolyte transport.”

Bd is quick and deadly: its effects may have wiped out more than 200 species of amphibians worldwide.

Similarly, the fire salamanders are dying at a rapid rate. Since first seeing dead animals in the Netherlands in 2010, scientists have observed that the population has fallen to around 10 individuals, less than four per cent of the original numbers.

But the similarities end there. The infected fire salamanders display skin lesions or ulcers and when the animals were tested, they were negative for Bd.

So what gives? According to a paper published last week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a new chytrid fungus.

Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans or Bs is closely related to Bd, but an entirely new chytrid fungus species.

This study is incredibly important, Blackburn says. “It clearly shows three things: 1) Bs is a new species of chytrid, 2) it presents different pathology than Bd (these lesions), and 3) it may have different host specificity.”

Bs, like Bd, doesn’t kill every amphibian it meets. “Midwife toads, Alytes obstetricans, are among the most susceptible of European frogs to Bd,” Blackburn says. But the study researchers infected the toads with new fungus Bs, and they were not susceptible to that fungus.

But the evidence the study provides only brings more questions for Blackburn. “When we think some amphibians around the world were killed by Bd, could it have been something else? Bs? Yet another species of chytrid?”

He gives an example of the thermal range for Bs and Bd. “People trying to predict how Bd spreads and where it would thrive—the fungus may be absent from that location now, but where it might flourish given the right conditions—by modeling where the disease is now with information on climatic conditions. In the past, have we been looking at the thermal range for Bd only or might we have confused some records of Bd with what we now know as Bs? Each may have different thermal conditions and there could be errors to where we’ve predicted that the disease could thrive.”

Testing for the new chytrid fungus also presents a conundrum. Although tests have been developed to screen for Bd, it is not clear whether these might sometimes be detecting Bs instead. The authors of the new study have developed primers to test for Bs, and Blackburn and his lab will obtain these to test animals here at the Academy.

Blackburn and other scientists came back with live frogs from Cameroon earlier this summer. The team hopes to raise and breed the animals here, displaying them for the public. As we reported in a story a few weeks ago, the frogs are part of a new initiative at the Academy focused on amphibian conservation and biodiversity education.

The Cameroonian frogs were screened and tested positive for Bd. They are being treated with a proven microbial solution, but now Blackburn is worried about Bs. “How widespread is Bs?”

And Blackburn has more and more questions… “Does it only affect salamanders? We’ve seen salamander declines in Central America—it looks like Bd, but could it be Bs? We found skin lesions on amphibians in Cameroon with mortality events, Bd was not present when tested. Could we have found Bs, instead?

“How is it spread, is it totally different from Bd? Why are we seeing these now? How is climate change affecting the emergence, spread, and change of prevalence? How do you stop them?

“Bs really opens the door for further research,” Blackburn says.

Image: Didier Descouens/Wikipedia

Two very different Academy scientists traveled to Cameroon together earlier this summer, in search of frogs, in a race to save them.

We’ve cited this scary number on this website before: more than one third of amphibians are at risk of extinction. These species experience many threats, mostly due to human impact, but one clear causes of frog death is the chytrid fungus. Scientists are unsure how it spreads, but the disease it causes quickly kills its victims.

Dave Blackburn, a scientist here at the Academy’s Institute on Biodiversity Science and Sustainability (IBSS), is working with San Francisco State University’s chytrid expert (and Academy fellow), Vance Vredenburg, to learn more about the spread and treatment of chytrid.

Brian Freiermuth works with the Academy’s live animals, mostly herps (amphibians and reptiles), and joined Blackburn on this unusual expedition. The two Academy scientists were joined by other students and colleagues, all looking for and collecting different samples.

“This expedition was exciting because we were conducting a lot of different types of science,” Blackburn, the expedition leader, explains. “We had four grad students with us. Two from UC Berkeley—one of them studies African frogs, the other looks at the larger ecosystem and how many frogs might live at a particular pond. One woman from the University of Texas is studying alkaloids on frogs’ skin and we also had a Cameroonian scientist who studies caecilians on the team. ”

While each team member had a very important role, Freiermuth performed a very crucial and unusual job for this type of expedition—keeping frogs alive during their journey through the country and all the way back home to San Francisco.

One of his biggest challenges was temperature since air conditioning isn’t always available or reliable in the country. “Keeping frogs alive for weeks at a time in less than ideal conditions in multiple locations isn’t easy,” says Freiermuth.  “Transporting the frogs from remote areas is hard to do because you don’t have any way to keep them cool in the vehicles, which get very warm during while traveling. I packed a large number of gel packs in our Styrofoam transport box and packed the frogs in individual vials. I also set the frogs up in cages in the field, and fed them until we would move to another location.”

Blackburn and Freiermuth also worked out cozy travel back to the US for the frogs. The amphibians were allowed in the cabin on Air France.

The frogs are now in quarantine here at the Academy, and will make their home in the Steinhart Aquarium by the end of this year, on display for visitors to see. The frogs were chosen because the Steinhart biologists believe they will do well in captivity but also because these are species of conservation concern for which we know little of their biology.

And they are here for a more important mission, too. The Cameroonian frogs are part of a new initiative at the Academy focused on amphibian conservation and biodiversity education. “This new initiative will enable us to figure out aspects of the biology of these many animals that we know so little about,” Blackburn says. The idea is that the more we know, the more we can protect and sustain populations.

“One basic goal of our work at the Academy is to better understand the conditions necessary for reproduction: breeding preferences (where are the eggs laid?), tadpole biology (what type of water quality do they require?), and requirements to get through metamorphosis (how long do they take to get to metamorphose, how long do they live, how long until they first reproduce, etc.),” Blackburn continues. “We can learn more about all of the species we collected in Cameroon: Cardioglossa pulchra, Cardioglossa gracilis, Hyperolius riggenbachi, Hyperolius ademetzi and Xenopus longipes.”

Science Today will follow up with two videos this fall: one on our new initiative and one on the fight against the deadly chytrid fungus. In the meantime, you can see some of Freiermuth’s amazing photos from the Cameroon expedition here.

Image: Brian Freiermuth

Last fall, Science Today’s Barbara Tannenbaum caught up with Dave Ebert and his grad student, Paul Clerkin, as they brought deep-sea shark specimens from the Indian Ocean to their new home in the Ichthyology collection here at the Academy.

Tannebaum’s article, “Fantastic Voyage,” captured their work expanding the Academy’s collections, and Ebert, an Academy research associate and director of the Pacific Shark Research Center in Moss Landing, has been tirelessly working ever since. We caught up with him by phone this week to hear the latest.

Earlier this year, Ebert traveled to Mauritius, east of Madagascar, searching for new and unknown shark species in the Indian Ocean. Ebert also attended a workshop put on by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, or FAO.

“We’re working on an identification catalog for sharks in that area to understand what’s being caught there,” Ebert explains.

In May, Ebert was part of a research cruise off of New Zealand, seeking more undiscovered sharks. His work was captured on film by the BBC for a segment that will air in early 2015. They hope to film him more on other expeditions in the coming year, too. “They’re doing something a little different,” Ebert says. “Kind of a day in the life of a researcher. They send us to a couple of different places to do some field surveys that will likely result in finding new or lesser known species.”

Ebert is pleased with the upcoming documentary because he’s hoping it will bring public awareness to little known shark species. “Everyone knows the white sharks and hammerheads, the charismatic species. These high profile sharks get a lot of attention and protection. But there are a lot of other species out there that for whatever reason are not known. Some of these have much higher conservation needs.”

He mentions the honeycomb cat shark (Holohalaelurus favus) off east Africa. The species was very abundant in the 1950s and 1960s, but hasn’t been seen for 40 years. “The shark didn’t even have a formal scientific name until 2006,” Ebert says. “We should know more about sharks like these and look out for them in fishery by-catch.”

When Ebert isn’t traveling, he works tirelessly on naming and describing these unknown and recently discovered shark species. The sharks he and Clerkin discovered were shipped here to the Academy for further examination. They will also find a permanent residence in our collections. “Several specimens just arrived from Taiwan and several more are due from South Africa this week,” he says.

Speaking of South Africa, Ebert will be a keynote speaker at next year’s Sharks International Conference in Durban, South Africa. The event occurs once every four years, and Ebert will be presenting on the biodiversity and conservation of sharks and rays, mostly African species.

And for true shark fans out there, Ebert is lead author on a new guidebook, Sharks of the World, due out next week.

Ebert is a busy scientist with much work ahead in discovering, describing and protecting sharks. Stay tuned for more updates on his important work.

Perhaps the most important message the Discovery Channel’s Shark Week can deliver is not how sharks may be dangerous, but how these fantastic fish are in danger.

While it’s hard to estimate the total number of sharks killed each year by humans, due to the illegal and unregulated nature of practices like shark finning, some studies put the number at around 100 million per year, says Shark Stewards’ founder David McGuire. The World Wildlife Fund reports that this number is also growing at about 5% each year.

McGuire, also an Academy research associate and a lecturer at the University of San Francisco, calls himself a “conservationist with science training” who hopes to spend the rest of his life protecting sharks.

He earned his shark chops here at the Academy, working with, and learning from, the amazing John McCosker, who has spent his life swimming with fewer and fewer sharks.

McGuire began telling his shark tales with a documentary in 2006 called “Shark Stewards of the Reef,” documenting the connection between sharks and coral reefs and highlighting the important role these top predators play in supporting the health of coral reefs.

A few years later, he was on the front lines of the shark fin ban here in California, which was successfully passed into law in 2011.

As McGuire has watched more states join the ban and other organizations get involved here in the United States, he’s moved his sights to Asia, to create more awareness about the plight of sharks worldwide. He’s working with eco-tourism and ecosystem restoration organizations, as well as focusing on educating a public that might consume sharks and shark fins without truly understanding the consequences to the health of the fish and the oceans in general.

After returning from a three-week trip to Cambodia, Malaysia, and Hong Kong, McGuire stopped by the Academy this week to give us an update on his work. “The idea is to bridge American relationships and resources to small grassroots organizations in Asia, as well as bring the message of shark conservation in a good way, not pointing fingers. We want people to have the information to make better decisions,” he explains.

Shark Stewards recently joined the Earth Island Institute in order to further its cause. McGuire is working on ads and videos providing solutions to the overhunting of sharks and recently organized two “Swim for Sharks” awareness events—3.5 mile swims here in San Francisco and also in Hong Kong, the center of the shark fin trade.

McGuire won’t stop in the fight for shark conservation. “It’s daunting,” he says of the work ahead in Asia, “but it’s also exciting.”

Follow McGuire’s work on his blog.

Image: David McGuire

Necessity is the mother of invention, and Academy researcher Matt Lewin saw a need in saving hundreds of thousands of lives lost to venomous snakebites, currently estimated to be as high as 125,000 per year. So Lewin invented!

Snakebite is one of the most neglected of tropical diseases: the number of fatalities is comparable to that of AIDS in some developing countries. It has been estimated that 75% of snakebite victims who die never even reach the hospital, predominantly because there is no easy way to treat them in the field.

“Snakebite is a leading cause of accidental death in the developing world, especially among otherwise healthy young people,” says Lewin. “We are trying to change the way people think about this ancient scourge and persistent modern tragedy by developing an inexpensive, heat-stable, easy-to-use treatment that will at least buy people enough time to get to the hospital for further treatment.”

Life-threatening snakebites are often treated in two different ways—through antivenoms or antiparalytics. Antivenoms provide an imperfect solution for a number of reasons—even if the snake has been identified and the corresponding antivenom exists, venomous bites often occur in remote locations far from population centers. Antivenoms are also expensive, require refrigeration, and demand significant expertise to administer and manage.

In some fatal snakebites, the snake’s neurotoxins paralyze victims, resulting in death by respiratory failure. For decades, medical workers have administered intravenous antiparalytics to treat snakebite when antivenoms are either not available or not effective. However, it is difficult to administer intravenous drugs outside of a hospital.

Lewin began to explore the idea of a different delivery vehicle for these antiparalytics when he was preparing snakebite treatment kits for the Academy’s Philippine Biodiversity Expedition. In his role as Director of the Academy’s Center for Exploration and Travel Health, Lewin prepares field medicine kits for the museum’s global scientific expeditions and often accompanies scientists as the expedition doctor.

The snakebite kits required scientists to inject themselves if they needed treatment. When Lewin saw their apprehension about the protocol, he began to wonder if there might be an easier way to treat snakebite in the field.

In April of this year, Lewin worked with a team of anesthesiologists at the UCSF Medical Center to design and complete a complex experiment that took place at the medical center. During the experiment, a healthy human volunteer was paralyzed, while awake, using a toxin that mimics that of cobras and other snakes that disable their victims by paralysis. The team then administered an antiparalytic, heat-resistant nasal spray and within 20 minutes the patient had recovered.

Later in April, Lewin delivered a keynote address, titled “How Expeditions Drive Clinical Research,” at the American Society for Clinical Investigation/Association of American Physicians joint meeting, during which he talked about this experiment and its origins. As a result, he met Stephen Samuel, an Indian physician and scientist from Trinity College Dublin who was interested in collaborating in India, where an estimated one million people are bitten by snakes every year, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths. Lewin flew to India to help Samuel set up treatment protocols at a rural hospital in Krishnagiri.

In late June, Samuel and his colleagues at TCR Multispeciality Hospital in Krishnagiri, Tamil Nadu, India, treated a snakebite victim using the nasal spray method. The patient was suffering from persistent facial paralysis from a krait bite, despite having undergone a full course of antivenom treatment. Upon treatment with the antiparalytic nasal spray, the facial paralysis was reversed within 30 minutes. Two weeks after being treated, the patient reported having returned to her daily activities.

A paper was published last week in the medical journal Clinical Case Reports.

Science Today produced a video a few years ago about Matt Lewin’s amazing work. He’s also featured in this Scientist at Work blog in the New York Times.

Image: Zdeněk Fric/Wikipedia

Two years ago, we produced a video about the remarkable work that scientists at Mote Marine Laboratory and the Academy are doing on spotted eagle rays. Little is known about these stunning elasmobranchs, but Kim Bassos-Hull of Mote and Anna Sellas from the Academy are continuing their studies to discover more about the rays and perhaps protect them along the way.

Bassos-Hull recently came to the Academy, and she and Sellas took the time to give Science Today an update on their long-term project.

Satellite Tagging & Genetics
They were excited about a satellite tag (a location-only SPOT tag) they deployed on a ray in April. Unlike sharks and marine mammals, rays are hard to tag because they have no prominent fins. The scientists’ colleague, Matt Ajemian of the Harte Research Institute, has had some luck with tagging rays, and he visited Mote to work with Bob Hueter, Mote’s expert on tagging sharks, to give the team some tips and best practices.

Generally, Ajemian has had satellite tags stay on animals for up to a few months, though the batteries last up to six months. Ajemian recently presented these findings at a special symposium on stingrays hosted by the American Elasmobrach Society in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Bassos-Hull says that the tag isn’t too invasive to the ray and that “many of the rays carry remoras larger than these tags.”

The first tag from April was unsuccessful, but in late May, Hueter and the team put a six-month pop-up archival satellite tag on a large female eagle ray.  If all goes well, this tag will pop off as programmed in about six months and give scientists more data on these mysterious rays.

Sellas is hoping the tag reveals information on the spotted eagle rays’ movements. The rays are generally found near Mote, off the coast of Sarasota in the Gulf of Mexico, from March through November. Few of the rays are seen in the summer months, and hardly any in the winter. Spotted eagle rays are also found on the Atlantic side of Florida, as well as off the coasts of Mexico and Cuba, but these rays could come from the same or different populations.

Sellas’ genetic work has revealed little genetic difference between rays found off Mexico and those found off Cuba, suggesting they are likely from the same population. Greater genetic differences seem to exist between rays sampled off Sarasota and those sampled off Mexico, suggesting limited movement across the Gulf. The satellite tagging data could confirm this “weak, but significant, genetic structure,” as Sellas calls it.

Sellas also hopes these tags can reveal how deep the rays are swimming and which habitats they frequent. Bassos-Hull says that habitat usage is particularly important off Sarasota, where there is proposed sand dredging in the Big Sarasota Pass Inlet for beach renourishment. But the Mote team knows the rays use this area to feed and that additional data could help protect this habitat for the rays.

Gulf Oil Spill
Since the Gulf Oil Spill, the Mote team has observed the number of spotted eagle rays off their coast decreased by about half. They began measuring and documenting the rays in 2009 and 2010, but in 2011 and 2012 the numbers per unit of measure had decreased. And, while the season isn’t finished this year, the lower population trend seems to have continued into 2013.

In addition, the Mote team has observed species rarely seen in the area—devil rays and whale sharks have started appearing in higher numbers than previously recorded. “It might be that these fish moved away from where the oil contaminated water was,” says Sellas.

Overseas collaborations
Bassos-Hull and Sellas have been working with Mexican scientists to collect tissues of spotted eagle rays for genetic sampling. Unlike the Florida samples, these tissues don’t come from live animals, but rather dead rays sold at local fish markets for consumption. One of their Mexican colleagues, Juan Carlos Perez-Jimenez, visited Mote in May to update them on the catch rates of spotted eagle rays in their fisheries.

Sellas and Bassos-Hull are also excited that this type of collaboration has expanded to Cuba.  A colleague there has similarly collected market samples for Sellas to conduct genetic work on here at the Academy.

Citizen Scientists on the Job
In the meantime, Bassos-Hull has received funding to utilize citizen scientists to learn more about these rays off the Florida Keys. She’s distributed small cards to dive shops there that, like the back of a milk carton, show a picture of one of these beautiful rays and ask, “Have you seen me?” Citizens can then refer to the back of the card which directs them to a website where they can report their sightings.

Mote is hoping that divers might spot these rays and input their sightings into the database, including pictures and location information. The small cards also give divers clues about where on the rays they might find small “spaghetti tags.” These tags indicate whether the ray has been caught before by Mote.

Bassos-Hull says that these citizen scientist sightings can help researchers understand where the hot spots for spotted eagle rays are in the Keys and where researchers should direct their attention for future studies.

Recognition and Recaptures
If you remember the video we produced in 2011, one of the most astonishing aspects of Mote’s work with these rays is the spot recognition software they use to identify the rays. The program, called I³S, is based on star recognition software and allows the researchers to recognize rays they’ve previously captured and released. Like fingerprints, no two rays’ spot patterns are the same.

Based on the data Mote has collected over the past few years, approximately 5% of the rays sampled are recaptures. This suggests that a certain number of rays are either remaining in the same area or returning to that area over time.

Busy Summer
Bassos-Hull and Sellas still have a lot of work ahead of them to understand these charismatic creatures and to share that knowledge with the world. In the meantime, this summer has kept them busy with a recent presentation at a professional conference on stingrays and forthcoming publications on their findings. And with more seasonal captures, they’ll undoubtedly learn more about the rays and their habitats. “We’re documenting the flux of nature,” Bassos-Hull says.

That could take a while.

Bob Hueter of Mote is also a principal investigator on this project. The researchers receive support and funding from the National Aquarium, the Disney Worldwide Conservation Foundation, the PADI Foundation, the Save Our Seas Foundation, and the California Academy of Sciences.

Image: Kim Bassos-Hull, Mote Marine Laboratory

Earlier this year, we produced a video documenting Academy researcher Luiz Rocha’s work in Belize studying invasive lionfish. These predators, originally from the Indo-Pacific, found their way to the northwest Atlantic in the 1990s—likely through an aquarium release—and have steadily moved south over the past fifteen years.

The lionfish are wreaking havoc in the area because they voraciously gobble up smaller, native fish—threatening everything from coral reef ecosystems to local economies based on fishing and tourism. In addition, eradication appears impossible and whatever is keeping them in check in their native Indo-Pacific habitats—researchers around the world are trying to find out what—appears to missing in the Atlantic.

“Prey in the Indo-Pacific could simply be more aware of the danger lionfish pose,” Rocha says. “There could also be parasites keeping the lionfish in check in their native habitats.”

Bad
A recent study in PLoS One determines that humans may be the only threat to lionfish in their new home. An international research team looked at whether native reef predators such as sharks and groupers could help control the population growth of lionfish in the Caribbean, either by eating them or out-competing them for prey.

The team surveyed 71 reefs over three years, in three different regions of the Caribbean. Their results indicate there is no relationship between the density of lionfish and that of native predators, suggesting that, “interactions with native predators do not influence” the number of lionfish in those areas.

The researchers did find that lionfish populations were smaller in protected reefs, but researchers attributed the lower numbers to targeted removal by reef managers, rather than consumption by large fishes in the protected areas. As Rocha mentioned in the video last spring, encouraging the hunting and human consumption of these spiny fish may be reefs’ only hope.

Ugly
Recent submersible dives deep off the coast of Fort Lauderdale, Florida reveal that these invasive lionfish populations aren’t just spreading southward—they’re also heading to great depths, out of the reach of their only predators, human hunters.

“We expected some populations of lionfish at that depth [300 feet], but their numbers and size were a surprise,” says Stephanie Green, of Oregon State University, who participated in the dives.

The lionfish are growing to an unusually large size—as much as 16 inches. “A lionfish will eat almost any fish smaller than it is,” Green says. “Regarding the large fish we observed in the submersible dives, a real concern is that they could migrate to shallower depths as well and eat many of the fish there. And the control measures we’re using at shallower depths—catch them and let people eat them—are not as practical at great depth.”

Rocha confirms this. “Even if control efforts are successful in shallow water, we can’t reach these deep fish.” And the lionfish at great depths can easily move to shallower areas. In addition, “these larger fish produce more eggs,” Rocha says, creating even larger populations.

(Rocha is hoping to join on subsequent dives. He was invited on this recent submersible dive, but was attending a conference on Indo-Pacific fish in Japan at the time. A video of the dives is available here.)

Good
We want to end on an upbeat note, and Rocha has a recent study in Marine Ecology Progress Series about the spread of lionfish down the coast of South America and into Brazil. The fish haven’t reached that far yet, but given their rapid spread, it seems to be only a matter of time.

Working with other Brazilian researchers, Rocha investigated movements of various fish species across the Amazon-Orinoco plume (AOP), where the Amazon and Orinoco rivers meet the Atlantic Ocean. The study describes the AOP as “a large freshwater and sediment runoff between the Caribbean and the Brazilian Provinces that represents a ‘porous’ barrier to dispersal for reef organisms.”

The scientists found that while a few “vagrant” species recently crossed the barrier heading north, “species headed south don’t spread as quickly,” according to Rocha. “The currents make it tricky to cross.”

This could be the first bit of good news in stopping the spread of lionfish. “This means we can keep an eye on it and control the lionfish as they cross, keeping their numbers down,” Rocha says.

Next
Rocha and colleagues here at the Academy and in Europe are beginning a population genomic study of the invasive lionfish. This study will look at fine-scale genetic diversity of lionfish among the different Caribbean islands. Rocha will start collecting samples in two weeks in Curaçao. The samples will then be analyzed by Academy researchers—including Rocha’s wife, Claudia—here at the Center for Comparative Genomics.

“We want to see if there is gene exchange between different island populations,” Rocha explains. “This will help us determine how successful local efforts to control lionfish can be if larvae are coming from other locations. This study can help inform how resources are used to control different populations.”

The fight against invasive lionfish continues…

Image: Alexander Vasenin/Wikipedia

How will climate change affect different species? Will organisms be able to adapt quickly enough to survive in a rapidly changing environment?

Researchers at the University of Oxford are attempting to predict this with small, short-lived birds like the great tit (Parus major). In a study published this week in PLoS Biology, the scientists discovered that great tits living in a forest near Oxford have been able to survive and adapt to a 1°C temperature increase over the past 50 years.

After analyzing those 50-plus years of data collected on the birds in their habitats, the authors studied when the birds lay their eggs relative to spring temperatures, as well as how the birds have tracked the shifts in peak caterpillar numbers caused by the changes in temperature. They found that the birds are now laying their eggs an average of two weeks earlier than they did 50 years ago, primarily as a result of phenotypic plasticity.

Phenotypic plasticity enables organisms to adjust their behavior rapidly in response to short-term changes in the environment. Jack Dumbacher, curator and department chair of Ornithology & Mammalogy here at the Academy, explains, “It’s heritable but it’s not an evolutionary, or genotypic change. There’s no change in the genes.”

The authors’ predictions show that phenotypic plasticity could allow the great tits—and similar birds—to survive warming of 0.5°C per year, easily outpacing the current worst-case scenario of 0.03°C from climate models.

Dumbacher says that while this study is interesting and a good reminder how adaptable one species may be, he emphasizes that temperature increase is just one effect of climate change. Temperature variance and extreme weather are other effects with unknown results to various ecosystems, he says. In addition, Dumbacher reminds us that the great tits and caterpillars play roles in a much larger ecosystem, where the web of relationships is so interdependent that one small change to one small organism in that web could easily affect other species.

One effect of climate change that Dumbacher stresses (and the study does not mention) is invasive species. As temperatures change, habitat ranges change for different species, which can result in one species invading the habitat of another. One example Dumbacher gives is the Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). These birds have been able to adapt to a 1°C temperature increase over the past 100 years but are now facing a fierce competitor in the Barred Owl (Strix varia), an eastern species that now finds itself in the same territory as the Northern Spotted Owl.

“Climate change is more than a one degree temperature increase,” Jack says. “And while a species may demonstrate plasticity within different temperature regimes, it’s likely that ecosystems are not as adaptable. This why climatologists have such a difficult time predicting the effect of climate change on organisms.”

Image: Luc Viatour/Wikipedia